{"id":413,"date":"2019-02-22T14:24:51","date_gmt":"2019-02-22T20:24:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lindagorchels.com\/blogs\/?p=413"},"modified":"2023-04-22T04:54:02","modified_gmt":"2023-04-22T09:54:02","slug":"scenario-development-a-tool-for-strategic-foresight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lindagorchels.com\/blogs\/scenario-development-a-tool-for-strategic-foresight\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenario Development: A Tool for Strategic Foresight"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is strategic\nforesight<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the disciplined study of the future. It\u2019s a strategic thinking<\/em> process rather than a strategic planning<\/em> process. As such, it goes beyond traditional economic, statistical, and business forecasting. It goes beyond extrapolating current and past trends. It may apply scenario development as a tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is foresight important?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We live in an increasingly complex time in which the connections between past, present, and future are often unpredictable. People use foresight to help steer a course between the false certainty of precise forecast models and the chaos of ignored circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several years ago, I attended a certificate program in\nstrategic foresight at the University of Houston. The class comprised a cadre\nof individuals from the military, national security, think tanks, corporations\nand higher education. Highly diverse, but with a common goal: how to prepare for\nthe future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every long-term decision is a bet on the future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Foresight method<\/a>s, many of which were developed by the RAND Corporation, have been used for decades, particularly in the military. Unlike forecasting, in which individuals attempt to predict a singular future, foresight identifies several plausible futures to allow leaders to prepare for what might <\/em>happen. The objective is to stimulate, inform, and prepare people for a variety of future possibilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, the actions we take can shape the future. An\nexcerpt from past promotional material from the World Future Society<\/a> reiterates this\npoint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If one could predict the future with certainty, it would mean that the future could not be changed\u2026Yet this is the main purpose of studying the future: to look at what might happen if present trends continue, decide if that is what is desirable, and if it\u2019s not, work to change it\u2026The ability to see and create the future is the essence of leadership.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I love that last line: The\nability to see and create the future is the essence of leadership<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think about it. The future is not predetermined. Each of us has the ability to influence some aspect of the future. (While I\u2019ll focus on organizational foresight, the concepts can be adapted for personal foresight, as well.) Are you up to it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario development<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A common tool of foresight, especially for long-term strategy, is scenario development or planning. It\u2019s a way of envisioning alternative futures by telling stories about how the future might unfold for your particular organization. The goal is to increase an organization\u2019s readiness for a range of possibilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the past may not be a good predictor of the future, scenario planning encourages organizations to consider how demographics, globalization, technology, and other changes will shape the future. By doing this, decision makers decrease the likelihood of being unprepared for discontinuities. They can challenge their own entrenched mental models and assumptions, and anticipate a broader set of future possibilities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n